SecureLeaf CTI Research note · related to SL-ADV-2026-WP-001 · TLP:CLEAR
BGP · RPKI · AS202412 / AS219199 / AS6461

AS0 ROAs and the AS202412 routing transition

Address space historically originated by AS202412 (Omegatech LTD) is now originated by AS6461. Nineteen of the affected /24s validate as RPKI Invalid because AS0 ROAs cover them. Those routes reach about 3% of RIPE RIS peers, while the same origin's uncovered prefixes reach about 80%.

Published 2026-10-29Observation window 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-29 UTCVersion 1.0
29prefixes monitored
0still originated by AS202412
19now RPKI Invalid under AS6461
~3%RIS visibility of the invalid routes (median 0%)
Summary

Key findings

Background

Why this address space is monitored

Independent public reporting has associated parts of the historical AS202412 estate with malware staging and delivery, command-and-control, botnet, malspam and phishing activity. Sources include Breakglass Intelligence, Nokia Deepfield ERT, ThreatFox (abuse.ch), Intrinsec and Netcraft. SecureLeaf tracks this cluster under advisory SL-ADV-2026-WP-001.

That history concerns past activity in this address space. It does not implicate the networks or organizations that originate, hold or route the space today.

On attribution. A BGP origin ASN identifies the network announcing reachability for a prefix. It does not identify who operates the servers behind it. Carriers routinely originate space for customers, resellers, VPN and mitigation services. Nothing in this note suggests AS6461 or any resource holder named here knowingly took part in malicious activity.

Finding 1

Same new origin, very different reach

All 24 announced prefixes in the watch list now have a new origin. Grouped by RPKI state, AS6461's routes split cleanly. Prefixes with no covering ROA propagate widely. Prefixes covered by AS0 ROAs barely propagate. Because the origin is the same in both groups, poor propagation by AS6461 does not explain the gap.

Invalid, covered by AS0 ROA A or B Invalid, covering ROA not yet identified Not Found Valid Median across collectors
AS6461 · RPKI Not Found · 4 prefixes
79–86%

of RIS peers see the route · 82–89% median

AS6461 · RPKI Invalid · 19 prefixes
3.4–3.7%

of RIS peers see the route · 0% median

The visibility collapse is strongly associated with the AS0-covered invalid routes. RIS visibility alone cannot show why each missing path is missing, so we do not claim that every absent peer dropped the route because of route origin validation.

Finding 2

Two AS0 ROA objects, two issuing CAs

An AS0 ROA is a signed RPKI statement that no origin AS is authorized to announce the covered space. Networks that perform route origin validation treat any announcement of that space as Invalid. We retrieved and validated two such objects from the RIPE NCC repository. Each carries nine AS0 entries and expires on 2027-07-01. They chain to different issuing certificates, which in RIPE's hosted RPKI usually means different resource holders.

ROA A · Qgs4lcmCzDX-kdy4tyN672rVdfk.roa

Authorizations

9 × AS0
PrefixmaxLengthIn this study
91.92.240.0/22/244 invalid /24s
91.206.71.0/24/24not monitored
158.94.208.0/22/244 invalid /24s
178.16.52.0/22/244 invalid /24s
185.7.240.0/22/22not monitored
185.7.240.0/24/24not monitored
185.7.243.0/24/24not monitored
185.81.153.0/24/24not monitored
185.81.154.0/24/24not monitored

Object

validates
Signed
2026-10-27 22:24:45 UTC
Valid until
2027-07-01 00:00:00 UTC
SKI
42:0B:38:95:C9:82:CC:35:FE:91:DC:B8:B7:23:7A:EF:6A:D5:75:F9
AKI
1B:12:12:0C:35:1C:14:EE:C2:21:09:F6:03:24:9F:CD:AC:1D:33:21
Issuer
rsync://rpki.ripe.net/repository/DEFAULT/GxISDDUcFO7CIQn2AySfzawdMyE.cer
Object
rsync://rpki.ripe.net/repository/DEFAULT/35/3daf7f-301d-423e-946e-43df47d5a1e7/1/Qgs4lcmCzDX-kdy4tyN672rVdfk.roa

ROA B · yZMbrPnYL62wFsLCuxQ4aaHq_IE.roa

Authorizations

9 × AS0
PrefixmaxLengthIn this study
5.181.85.0/24/24not monitored
5.181.87.0/24/24not monitored
45.94.170.0/24/24not monitored
45.132.180.0/24/24invalid /24
45.144.213.0/24/24not monitored
77.83.39.0/24/24not monitored
146.19.125.0/24/24invalid /24
193.30.241.0/24/24invalid /24
195.211.190.0/24/24not monitored

Object

validates
Signed
2026-10-28 18:36:40 UTC
Valid until
2027-07-01 00:00:00 UTC
SKI
C9:93:1B:AC:F9:D8:2F:AD:B0:16:C2:C2:BB:14:38:69:A1:EA:FC:81
AKI
9D:2A:47:8B:B0:B0:8E:66:1B:0B:2F:9F:BE:89:35:BC:9C:2A:28:A1
Issuer
rsync://rpki.ripe.net/repository/DEFAULT/nSpHi7CwjmYbCy-fvok1vJwqKKE.cer
Object
rsync://rpki.ripe.net/repository/DEFAULT/16/663df5-580c-4f2c-a66c-eef3511f6c60/1/yZMbrPnYL62wFsLCuxQ4aaHq_IE.roa

Entries marked “not monitored” are other resources carried by the same signed objects. We list them because they are public RPKI data. We make no claim that they are connected to AS202412 or to any malicious activity.

The signing time is the timestamp of the current object. A ROA can be reissued with the same content, so it does not tell us when the AS0 policy first appeared. This matters most for ROA B, which was signed about 15 hours after the withdrawals.

Finding 3

Registration of 158.94.208.0/22

RIPE RDAP lists 158.94.208.0/22 as an active ALLOCATED PA block registered to MGN TEKNOLOJI ANONIM SIRKETI (Istanbul, TR), with a registration date of 2025-09-10. The record shows a database change at 13:49:36 UTC on 28 October 2026. RDAP does not say which attribute changed.

Because the block is an active allocation and not returned free-pool space, the AS0 ROA appears to have been issued within an allocated resource holder's RPKI. We have not established who requested it or why.

Sequence

Timeline (UTC)

Issuing certificate 1B12120C… becomes valid.

Its resources include 91.92.240.0/22 and 158.94.208.0/22.

Four /24s first observed originated by AS219199, with AS202412 upstream.

ROA A signed: nine AS0 authorizations.

Synchronized withdrawals across the AS202412 estate.

RIPE database change on 158.94.208.0/22.

ROA B signed under a different issuing CA: nine AS0 authorizations.

SecureLeaf baselines the 29-prefix watch.

AS202412 at zero prefixes; 23 /24s from AS6461, one from AS51130, five unannounced.

Snapshot used for the figures in this note.

Interpretation

What the evidence supports

Supported

  • An estate-wide origin change for address space historically announced by AS202412.
  • Two validating AS0 ROA objects that cover 15 of the 19 invalid /24s.
  • A sharp visibility gap between AS0-covered and uncovered routes from the same origin AS.
  • Close timing between the ROA publications and the withdrawals.

Not established

  • Who requested the AS0 authorizations, or why.
  • Whether the AS0 policy existed before the current objects were signed.
  • Whether any resource transfer or registry enforcement took place.
  • That AS6461 hosts, operates or knowingly serves the prior infrastructure.
  • That the ROAs caused the withdrawals.

Open questions we are working on

For defenders

Monitored prefixes and current state

State as of 2026-10-29 01:39 UTC. Origins in leased space change often, so verify current routing before acting on this list.

PrefixOrigin nowPrevious originRPKIVisibility / median

Plain-text list


    
Method

Data and methodology

Routing data comes from RIPEstat (RIPE NCC RIS): prefix overview, routing status, visibility, routing history and announced prefixes, polled every 15 minutes. Visibility is the share of full-table RIS peers that see the exact prefix; the median is taken across route collectors. RPKI validity was decided locally per RFC 6811 against RIPEstat VRP data. ROA objects were retrieved from the RIPE NCC repository and validated independently. Registration data comes from RIPE RDAP.